12 C
Seoul
2024년3월29일 금요일 19:06:10
Home아카이브포럼・외국New data on North Korean economy

New data on North Korean economy

New data on North Korean Economy

 

 

According to Hyundai Research Institute, the per inhabitant GDP of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) has grown from 688 USD to 720 USD in 2011. These figures do not take into account the differences concerning purchasing power between countries (in DPRK, many services – including education and healthcare – are free, which means that the standard of living is higher), so this level is not meaningful. According to us, as it will be shown in a book to pe published soon (The North Korean Economy, Les Indees Savantes, Paris, 2012), the North Korean GDP can be estimated around 4.000 USD, considering the electricity consumption and other datas reflecting the economic development in the country. However, it is interesting to consider the evolution of the GDP. Such an evolution from 688 to 720 USD in 2011 means that the GDP per inhabitant would have rosen by 4,6 % last year. Moreover, the North Korean population has grown by 0,535 % in 2011, so that the global progression of the GDP can be evaluated to 5,2 % – higher than in South Korea last year.

 

This data are very important, since Hyundai Asan is the biggest investor in the Northern part of the peninsula and researchers and analysts can consider Hyundai as independant from the Southern government. Hyundai have made evaluations of different productions, including the crop harvest (estimated to 4,74 Mln tonnes, + 7,2 % on a year), which would have reached a peak for several years.

 

According to the data published each year by the Bank of Korea headquartered in Seoul, the North Korean economy would have decreased by 0,9 % in 2009 and by 0,5 % in 2010. But the method used to make these evaluations is not public. It reflects basic intelligence data, known only by the conservative government in power in Seoul. Since President Lee Myung-bak has taken office at the beginning of the year 2008, the North Korean would have decreased every year except one, in 2008). As data on economic productions turn to be less and less precise each year, considering that the report related to the year 2010 has been published three months later than usual, in autumn 2011, we do not consider these data as reliable any longer. It is very disappointing to conclude that the Bank of Korea has become an instrumenf of the NK policy of the South Korean power.

 

Conservatives in Seoul want to show that the North Korean political and economical system would collapse, so they try to publish data showing that such an opinion would be true. Nevertheless, they do not want to say that the North Korean economy would decrease too sharply, because in such a situation there would be pressure on them to carry food aid to the North Korean people. Such a debate may explain why the publication of the reported related to the year 2010 has been delayed to late 2011, when the question of food aid to North Korea was no longer considered, regarding the better harvest in North Korea in summer 2011. So a smooth economic decrease complies with the point of view of the conservatives. As expected, the reports of the Bank of Korea has given evaluations of an economic decrease evaluated to 0,9 % in 2009 and 0,5 % in 2010, but it must be considered that such estimations are more political than economically based on reliable data.

 

The problem is that all other specialists who have travelled recently to DPRK acknowledge that the North Korean economy is making progress. New electric centres have been built recently. The food productions are getting more and more diversified. The IT industry is booming, as shown by the increasing numbers of persons using cell phones, which has recently topped the 1.000.000 level of subscribers. New buildings are under construction all over the country. Even if the crop harvests account for about 10 % of the GDP, fluctuations of the agricultural production due to climate factors is only one factor between others explaining the global trend of the national economy. All these signs show a discrepancy between foreigners’ analyses and the reports recently published by the Bank of Korea.

 

Such doubts concerning the sincerity of the data published by the Bank of Korea have also arosen from different analysts,such as Philippe Pons, who has worked for the French daily newspaper Le Monde for more than 30 years and can be considered as a reliable expert on both South and North Korean affairs. In a publication named Bilan du Monde 2011, published by the daily newspaper, Philippe Pons lays stress on the fact that there are not other data available than those of the Bank of (South) Korea, and that these date rely on intelligence agencies.

 

Philippe Pons is right to precise the origins of these data, but he is wrong when he considers that no other data are available. There are possibilities to collect other data independantly, as was done by Hyundai Research Group. The method used in all countries to evaluate the GDP is based on collecting data in different parts of the country. Our conviction is that Chaebols and other major firms, such as public researchers, can have access to a large base of data, which would make it possible to evaluate the global trend of the North Korean economy, and decide which North Korean policy can be decided.

 

 

Benoit Quennedey(vice-president of the France-Korea Friendship Association, author of The North Korean Economy)


 

 

관련기사
- Advertisement -
플랫포옴뉴스